Tue, Oct 28, 2014·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 05 | 012 | 113 | 130 |
| VAN | 18 | 28 | 19 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32VANBrad RichardsonAssists: Zack Kassian, Shawn Matthias · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 0:50VANLinden VeyPPGWGAssists: Radim Vrbata, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 18:39VANJannik HansenAssists: Yannick Weber, Luca Sbisa · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–3
- P3 11:05CARJiri TlustyAssists: Eric Staal, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 19:43VANBrad RichardsonENAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.58 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:15VANBrad Richardson: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:04CARRyan Murphy: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:53VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:59VANLuca Sbisa: Holding2 min
- P3 2:00CARJay McClement: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:00VANBrad Richardson: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:00CARAlexander Semin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:42CARTim Gleason: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Tlusty – Skinner3:12
xG 0.43–0.07 (85%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Nash – Rask – Lindholm2:43
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty9:49
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Nash – Skinner – Lindholm7:37
xG 0.18–0.23 (43%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Liles9:50
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Gleason – Murphy14:58
xG 0.63–0.58 (52%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Sekera – Faulk11:07
xG 0.19–0.60 (24%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Matthias – Kassian8:11
xG 0.98–0.09 (92%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Hansen – Dorsett – Vey8:49
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Higgins – Burrows – Bonino9:09
xG 0.14–0.39 (27%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Vrbata13:05
xG 0.38–0.64 (37%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Sbisa11:55
xG 0.91–0.12 (89%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Edler – Tanev15:23
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Edler2:02
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).