Wed, Oct 29, 2014·Verizon Center, Washington
Detroit Red Wings 4, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 03 | 110 | 39 | 422 |
| WSH | 08 | 211 | 08 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:56DETGustav NyquistAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–0
- P2 13:19WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: Joel Ward, Braden Holtby · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 19:02WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: John Carlson, Andre Burakovsky · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 4:04DETJustin AbdelkaderUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 10:34DETJustin AbdelkaderGWGAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 19:06DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Brendan Smith · Snap, 0.10 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:22DETLuke Glendening: Interference2 min
- P1 8:51WSHAndre Burakovsky: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:13DETTomas Tatar: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:24DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P2 11:26DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:53WSHLiam O'Brien: Throwing equipment2 min
- P2 17:01DETJustin Abdelkader: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:17WSHNicklas Backstrom: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:24DETPavel Datsyuk: Holding2 min
- P3 17:07WSHJoel Ward: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist4:49
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader5:26
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan3:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Helm – Tatar4:08
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser8:55
xG 1.09–0.42 (72%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Kindl – DeKeyser2:27
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Quincey2:06
xG 0.05–0.06 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Beagle – Kuznetsov8:12
xG 0.42–0.03 (93%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Ward – Ovechkin – Backstrom2:17
xG 0.33–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Brouwer – Backstrom – Johansson7:00
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Johansson – Burakovsky2:21
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner12:16
xG 0.39–0.04 (90%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Green – Schmidt11:37
xG 0.53–0.64 (45%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Orpik – Carlson15:04
xG 0.49–0.66 (43%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).