Wed, Oct 29, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Nashville Predators 4, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 011 | 29 | 215 | 435 |
| EDM | 03 | 015 | 19 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:23NSHCraig SmithAssists: Derek Roy, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 7:49NSHTaylor BeckGWGAssists: Colin Wilson, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 0:24NSHShea WeberAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.03 xG3–0
- P3 8:54EDMTaylor HallAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle · Slap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 12:24NSHCraig SmithAssists: Matt Cullen, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (3)
- P2 17:01NSHEric Nystrom: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:13NSHSeth Jones: Interference2 min
- P3 17:44EDMAndrew Ference: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Roy – Smith12:33
xG 0.87–0.22 (79%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
- Jokinen – Wilson – Beck11:44
xG 0.41–0.05 (88%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Forsberg14:01
xG 0.47–0.46 (50%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Bourque9:04
xG 0.19–0.65 (22%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Jones13:16
xG 0.73–0.18 (81%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Ellis – Ekholm17:04
xG 0.47–0.68 (41%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
- Weber – Josi21:02
xG 0.53–0.78 (40%)attempts 18–28goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Perron – Draisaitl11:21
xG 0.60–0.43 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins15:09
xG 0.43–0.42 (51%)attempts 21–13goals 1–2
- Hendricks – Gordon – Joensuu8:17
xG 0.27–0.39 (41%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Pouliot – Arcobello – Yakupov7:48
xG 0.04–0.45 (9%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Hunt16:58
xG 0.75–0.39 (66%)attempts 20–14goals 0–1
- Fayne – Marincin14:09
xG 0.37–0.52 (41%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Ference – Petry15:05
xG 0.44–0.97 (31%)attempts 10–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).