Thu, Oct 30, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 08 | 110 | 116 | 13 | 337 |
| BUF | 07 | 23 | 04 | 01 | 215 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:12BUFDrew StaffordPPAssists: Tyler Ennis, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 11:36BOSAdam McQuaidAssists: Carl Soderberg, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 16:25BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 14:30BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Loui Eriksson, Dennis Seidenberg · Slap, 0.00 xG2–2
- OT 1:20BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Reilly Smith, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:51BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:51BUFChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:01BUFChris Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 14:42BOSJoe Morrow: Holding2 min
- P2 4:10BOSReilly Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:12BUFTorrey Mitchell: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Girgensons won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Bergeron – Smith8:40
xG 0.47–0.02 (96%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Soderberg – Marchand12:01
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 18–7goals 2–0
- Gagne – Campbell – Paille4:53
xG 0.24–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Gagne – Kelly – Bergeron3:26
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWarsofsky – Trotman12:06
xG 0.47–0.15 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Hamilton17:15
xG 0.69–0.55 (56%)attempts 23–7goals 1–0
- McQuaid – Morrow14:23
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Stafford – Ennis11:58
xG 0.59–0.36 (62%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- McCormick – Stewart – Foligno11:15
xG 0.11–0.23 (33%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
- Hodgson – Deslauriers – Reinhart6:44
xG 0.01–0.27 (4%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Gionta – Mitchell – Girgensons14:11
xG 0.09–0.53 (14%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Benoit – Myers2:24
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Strachan – Weber12:36
xG 0.14–0.28 (34%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
- Benoit – Ristolainen15:06
xG 0.56–0.77 (42%)attempts 9–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).