Thu, Oct 30, 2014·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 14 | 08 | 215 | 327 |
| TBL | 19 | 113 | 210 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:29TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Anton Stralman, Jonathan Drouin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 12:43PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 19:14TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Jason Garrison, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 5:30TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Alex Killorn · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 6:38PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Brandon Manning, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–3
- P3 16:48TBLJason GarrisonPPGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Valtteri Filppula · Slap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 19:06PHIMichael RafflAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P2 5:30TBLAndrej Sustr: Holding2 min
- P2 6:22TBLBrian Boyle: Holding2 min
- P2 6:22PHIClaude Giroux: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 8:09PHISean Couturier: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:04PHIChris VandeVelde: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:04TBLEric Brewer: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:06PHILuke Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:34PHIZac Rinaldo: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00TBLRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:28PHINicklas Grossmann: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:52PHIWayne Simmonds: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Raffl9:08
xG 0.79–0.31 (72%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Bellemare7:31
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Umberger – Read – Couturier7:43
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Rinaldo – Akeson3:38
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Manning12:11
xG 0.80–0.18 (82%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Schultz – Del Zotto12:35
xG 0.49–0.14 (77%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Streit – Grossmann11:50
xG 0.34–0.45 (43%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov9:51
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Paquette – Drouin6:19
xG 0.27–0.23 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Filppula – Killorn – Stamkos11:13
xG 0.13–0.40 (25%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Brown10:29
xG 0.16–1.00 (14%)attempts 6–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Stralman11:14
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Brewer – Gudas3:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Garrison – Gudas8:42
xG 0.02–0.15 (12%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).