Thu, Oct 30, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
San Jose Sharks 3, Minnesota Wild 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 110 | 15 | 19 | 04 | 1 | 328 |
| MIN | 015 | 119 | 28 | 04 | 2 | 446 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:06SJSMirco MuellerAssists: Matt Nieto, James Sheppard · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 4:20SJSTommy WingelsPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 8:40MINMikko KoivuAssists: Jason Zucker, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 1:37SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 5:13MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Thomas Vanek, Justin Fontaine · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 10:32MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Thomas Vanek, Nate Prosser · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 2. SJS Logan Couture scored
- 3. MIN Mikko Koivu scored
- 4. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 5. MIN Jason Pominville scored
- 6. SJS Patrick Marleau stopped
Penalties (3)
- P1 8:24SJSAdam Burish: Holding2 min
- P1 12:18MINRyan Suter: Interference2 min
- P2 3:15MINStephane Veilleux: Charging2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marleau won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Burish – Desjardins – Hertl2:01
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Burish – Desjardins – Goodrow7:55
xG 0.03–0.10 (23%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Marleau – Couture – Wingels14:35
xG 0.34–0.50 (41%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
- Sheppard – Nieto – Tierney12:12
xG 0.23–0.69 (25%)attempts 11–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun19:51
xG 0.39–0.25 (60%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Hannan – Demers16:39
xG 0.24–0.28 (45%)attempts 10–22goals 0–0
- Burns – Mueller14:16
xG 0.40–1.30 (23%)attempts 13–22goals 2–3
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Coyle13:44
xG 1.13–0.10 (92%)attempts 25–8goals 1–0
- Vanek – Brodziak – Fontaine3:16
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 2–5goals 2–0
- Vanek – Brodziak – Niederreiter7:45
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund17:19
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 15–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon19:48
xG 1.25–0.49 (72%)attempts 32–12goals 1–1
- Scandella – Dumba12:31
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Suter – Prosser2:11
xG 0.16–0.02 (91%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).