Thu, Oct 30, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
New York Islanders 0, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 017 | 014 | 040 |
| COL | 15 | 314 | 14 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:34COLCody McLeodGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Max Talbot · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 3:25COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Erik Johnson, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.46 xG0–2
- P2 8:59COLMarc-Andre ClicheAssists: Max Talbot, Cody McLeod · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 10:14COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Jarome Iginla, Jamie McGinn · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–4
- P3 13:40COLErik JohnsonAssists: Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.02 xG0–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:55COLGabriel Landeskog: Delaying game2 min
- P1 19:17COLJohn Mitchell: Delaying game2 min
- P2 1:36NYICalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:53COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:31COLNick Holden: Holding2 min
- P3 2:01COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:29NYIJohnny Boychuk: Interference2 min
- P3 13:23NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:23COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:44COLNick Holden: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Nelson – Strome6:43
xG 0.79–0.08 (91%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Okposo – Tavares – Conacher10:07
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Kulemin8:46
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:08
xG 0.35–0.29 (55%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey7:34
xG 0.89–0.18 (83%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Boychuk – Leddy8:50
xG 0.77–0.25 (75%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Leddy5:30
xG 0.53–0.06 (89%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTalbot – McLeod – Cliche6:30
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Tanguay – Mitchell – Everberg9:33
xG 0.42–0.32 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Duchene – Landeskog10:52
xG 0.14–0.87 (14%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
- Iginla – McGinn – MacKinnon10:39
xG 0.30–1.04 (23%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Hejda – Johnson12:08
xG 0.54–0.51 (51%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Stuart – Holden13:33
xG 0.44–0.70 (39%)attempts 7–23goals 0–0
- Guenin – Barrie10:13
xG 0.20–0.61 (24%)attempts 4–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).