Thu, Oct 30, 2014·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Montréal Canadiens 2, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 07 | 011 | 26 | 01 | 225 |
| VAN | 09 | 111 | 16 | 14 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:29VANNick BoninoAssists: Derek Dorsett · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 2:17VANBrad RichardsonAssists: Shawn Matthias, Yannick Weber · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 12:11MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: P.K. Subban, Alexei Emelin · Deflected, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 17:27MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Dale Weise, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 2:45VANDaniel SedinPPGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:42VANKevin Bieksa: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:39VANDerek Dorsett: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:56VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:07MTLLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- OT 0:50MTLTom Gilbert: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthias won the faceoff against Malhotra
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPrust – Bourque – Eller10:10
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 14–5goals 0–2
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Weise2:47
xG 0.14–0.07 (66%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Moen – Weise4:14
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Bourque – Gallagher – Galchenyuk2:04
xG 0.03–0.04 (39%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Tinordi2:33
xG 0.45–0.02 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Weaver – Tinordi5:09
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Weaver – Subban2:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Burrows – Bonino11:16
xG 0.66–0.13 (84%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Richardson – Matthias – Kassian10:11
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Vrbata12:48
xG 0.41–0.35 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Hansen – Dorsett – Vey8:03
xG 0.27–0.31 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bieksa16:49
xG 0.77–0.54 (59%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Weber – Sbisa11:52
xG 0.58–0.35 (62%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Edler – Tanev16:47
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).