Fri, Oct 31, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 116 | 22 | 427 |
| CBJ | 09 | 09 | 111 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:28TORPhil KesselAssists: Daniel Winnik, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P2 12:13TORDavid ClarksonPPGWGAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Peter Holland · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 2:38TORNazem KadriAssists: Phil Kessel, Daniel Winnik · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 10:40CBJCam AtkinsonPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Jack Johnson · Tip-in, 0.36 xG3–1
- P3 16:27TORDaniel WinnikAssists: Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.14 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:13CBJDavid Savard: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:59TORDion Phaneuf: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:32TORRoman Polak: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:53CBJJack Johnson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:21TORDavid Clarkson: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:50TORMatt Frattin: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chaput won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Kessel – Kadri9:43
xG 0.92–0.26 (78%)attempts 10–8goals 3–0
- Clarkson – van Riemsdyk – Bozak15:06
xG 0.51–0.24 (67%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Frattin – Ashton – Holland6:05
xG 0.11–0.04 (75%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Komarov – Panik11:56
xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Franson13:37
xG 1.07–0.26 (81%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Polak – Rielly15:05
xG 0.43–0.32 (57%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Robidas – Gardiner12:18
xG 0.12–0.23 (34%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Cracknell – Boll – Collins5:00
xG 0.07–0.04 (64%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Tropp – Chaput – Dano2:56
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Skille – Foligno – Chaput4:38
xG 0.07–0.15 (31%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Atkinson – Johansen12:41
xG 0.41–0.71 (36%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestProut – Erixon16:15
xG 0.56–0.31 (64%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Johnson15:25
xG 0.25–0.66 (27%)attempts 15–11goals 0–2
- Savard – Murray16:12
xG 0.14–0.85 (14%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).