Fri, Oct 31, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Los Angeles Kings 2, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 07 | 112 | 111 | 230 |
| DET | 412 | 08 | 115 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:51DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 9:42DETPavel DatsyukUnassisted · Deflected, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 11:44DETGustav NyquistPPGWGAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.63 xG0–3
- P1 15:28DETTomas TatarAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–4
- P2 10:41LAKAlec MartinezAssists: Mike Richards, Trevor Lewis · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–4
- P3 1:48LAKTyler ToffoliSHAssists: Robyn Regehr, Dwight King · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–4
- P3 18:50DETPavel DatsyukENAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Justin Abdelkader · Snap, 0.64 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:54LAKMatt Greene: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 11:16LAKMike Richards: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:40LAKMike Richards: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:01DETGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:59DETDanny DeKeyser: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:40LAKJarret Stoll: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 2:29DETDanny DeKeyser: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 3:53LAKJordan Nolan: Boarding2 min
- P3 3:53DETJonathan Ericsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:22LAKDrew Doughty: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stoll won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Lewis – Clifford8:11
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Williams – Stoll – Brown9:34
xG 0.31–0.18 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson7:43
xG 0.12–0.71 (14%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- King – Nolan – Andreoff7:31
xG 0.04–1.01 (4%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Regehr – Martinez13:15
xG 0.60–0.85 (41%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Doughty16:02
xG 0.24–0.55 (31%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Greene – McNabb12:15
xG 0.21–0.89 (19%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Nestrasil – Jurco7:55
xG 0.93–0.05 (95%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader10:10
xG 0.92–0.22 (81%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan9:42
xG 0.43–0.44 (49%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening12:21
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Smith11:25
xG 1.20–0.18 (87%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Kindl3:06
xG 0.23–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ericsson – DeKeyser4:26
xG 0.22–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).