Fri, Oct 31, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Anaheim Ducks 2, Dallas Stars 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 011 | 15 | 07 | 11 | 224 |
| DAL | 08 | 01 | 111 | 02 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:45ANACorey PerryAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Ryan Kesler · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P3 14:33DALAntoine RousselAssists: Trevor Daley, Ryan Garbutt · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- OT 2:30ANANate ThompsonGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Cam Fowler · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:47DALTyler Seguin: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:08ANARyan Kesler: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:25DALAntoine Roussel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:00ANATim Jackman: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:53DALAntoine Roussel: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:53ANACorey Perry: Embellishment2 min
- P2 4:05ANAJosh Manson: Delaying game2 min
- P2 8:54DALJamie Oleksiak: Holding2 min
- P2 11:05ANAHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P2 15:29DALKevin Connauton: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 16:02ANARyan Getzlaf: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:30ANAPatrick Maroon: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Smith-Pelly9:46
xG 0.39–0.17 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Jackman – Thompson – Etem5:58
xG 0.39–0.29 (58%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Silfverberg – Karlsson5:36
xG 0.08–0.03 (69%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Maroon9:05
xG 0.00–0.60 (0%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Lindholm14:31
xG 0.48–0.51 (48%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Stoner – Manson9:25
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Vatanen2:11
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Eakin – Garbutt9:54
xG 0.45–0.17 (72%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Cole – Horcoff – Sceviour4:41
xG 0.16–0.14 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin7:17
xG 0.18–0.17 (53%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Fiddler – Eaves4:54
xG 0.18–0.34 (35%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Goligoski11:33
xG 0.45–0.07 (86%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Benn – Dillon14:02
xG 0.75–0.61 (55%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Connauton – Oleksiak8:00
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).