Sat, Nov 1, 2014·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
New York Islanders 1, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 16 | 06 | 08 | 120 |
| SJS | 117 | 05 | 29 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:06NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Nick Leddy, Johnny Boychuk · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 10:23SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Tommy Wingels, Matt Nieto · Slap, 0.28 xG1–1
- P3 11:50SJSLogan CoutureGWGAssists: Justin Braun, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 15:35SJSJames SheppardAssists: Adam Burish, Andrew Desjardins · Slap, 0.13 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:49NYIRyan Strome: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:45SJSTommy Wingels: Holding2 min
- P3 1:55SJSJason Demers: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 16:10NYICory Conacher: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:47SJSAdam Burish: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Cizikas – Conacher7:38
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Martin – Lee – Strome8:02
xG 0.26–0.14 (64%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Okposo – Tavares – Nelson15:10
xG 0.43–0.51 (46%)attempts 17–19goals 1–1
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Kulemin11:59
xG 0.26–0.38 (40%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy16:36
xG 0.61–0.31 (66%)attempts 22–18goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Hamonic2:50
xG 0.09–0.11 (45%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hamonic – de Haan17:14
xG 0.38–0.41 (48%)attempts 17–19goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Nieto12:59
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 23–10goals 0–1
- Marleau – Couture – Wingels14:01
xG 0.28–0.10 (74%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Sheppard – Goodrow – Tierney3:52
xG 0.18–0.09 (68%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Burish – Desjardins – Hertl2:55
xG 0.05–0.00 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Mueller15:26
xG 0.64–0.27 (70%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Demers – Mueller4:28
xG 0.37–0.02 (95%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Demers3:47
xG 0.35–0.16 (69%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).