Sat, Nov 1, 2014·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Washington Capitals 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 113 | 213 | 012 | 338 |
| TBL | 115 | 26 | 17 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:06TBLRyan CallahanAssists: Brian Boyle · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 12:59WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 2:11WSHEric FehrAssists: Jason Chimera, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 9:29TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 12:12TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Eric Brewer, Tyler Johnson · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 19:01WSHTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 2:27TBLJason GarrisonGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:03WSHBrooks Orpik: Boarding2 min
- P1 8:03WSHBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:03TBLAlex Killorn: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:13TBLRadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:13WSHEric Fehr: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 10:13WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:33TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:34TBLOndrej Palat: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Fehr – Kuznetsov8:19
xG 0.56–0.05 (92%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Ward – Ovechkin – Backstrom3:48
xG 0.45–0.10 (82%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Beagle – Latta – Wilson5:25
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Fehr – Burakovsky2:26
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Schmidt14:57
xG 0.92–0.52 (64%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Orpik – Niskanen2:04
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Alzner11:40
xG 0.26–0.37 (41%)attempts 5–11goals 0–3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov12:49
xG 1.48–0.65 (69%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Namestnikov – Brown – Drouin3:53
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Stamkos17:19
xG 0.16–0.34 (33%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Brown7:25
xG 0.05–0.38 (11%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Gudas14:00
xG 0.68–0.40 (63%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Brewer – Barberio13:35
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Carle – Stralman15:25
xG 0.53–0.52 (50%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).