Sat, Nov 1, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 010 | 118 | 137 |
| FLA | 112 | 09 | 19 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:07FLAWillie MitchellAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Brad Boyes · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 15:38FLAAaron EkbladPPGWGAssists: Brian Campbell, Jimmy Hayes · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 19:52PHIVincent LecavalierAssists: Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:10FLAScottie Upshall: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:07PHIWayne Simmonds: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:44FLANick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:10PHIBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:59PHIZac Rinaldo: Embellishment2 min
- P2 17:07PHIWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:07FLATomas Kopecky: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:11FLADylan Olsen: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:17FLAScottie Upshall: Interference2 min
- P3 8:28FLAJussi Jokinen: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:56FLAWillie Mitchell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:19PHIMark Streit: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Raffl7:16
xG 0.35–0.06 (86%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Schenn – Read – Couturier8:12
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Umberger – Simmonds6:15
xG 0.01–0.22 (6%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Rinaldo – Bellemare5:51
xG 0.00–0.57 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Streit – Del Zotto2:38
xG 0.21–0.34 (39%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Streit – Grossmann10:18
xG 0.10–0.23 (29%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Schultz – Del Zotto9:03
xG 0.02–0.21 (9%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestThornton – MacKenzie – Kopecky7:44
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Upshall – Hayes – Bjugstad9:09
xG 0.24–0.23 (52%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Boyes – Jokinen – Fleischmann7:04
xG 0.02–0.03 (39%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOlsen – Gudbranson6:57
xG 0.19–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Campbell – Ekblad8:13
xG 0.35–0.39 (47%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Kulikov11:42
xG 0.08–0.20 (28%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).