Sat, Nov 1, 2014·Madison Square Garden, New York
Winnipeg Jets 1, New York Rangers 0 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 06 | 08 | 08 | 03 | 2 | 125 |
| NYR | 010 | 016 | 010 | 02 | 1 | 038 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- No goals in regulation or overtime.
Shootout
- 1. NYR Mats Zuccarello scored
- 2. WPG Blake Wheeler scored
- 3. NYR Rick Nash stopped
- 4. WPG Andrew Ladd stopped
- 5. NYR Dominic Moore stopped
- 6. WPG Bryan Little stopped
- 7. NYR Martin St. Louis stopped
- 8. WPG Evander Kane scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:48WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:56WPGJim Slater: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:08NYRDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:01WPGTJ Galiardi: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:54NYRAnthony Duclair: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:54WPGJacob Trouba: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:25NYRMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:39WPGAndrew Ladd: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Moore won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Little – Frolik9:14
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Galiardi3:50
xG 0.08–0.02 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Kane – Scheifele11:56
xG 0.53–0.63 (46%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Bogosian9:04
xG 0.83–0.23 (78%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Clitsome – Postma4:47
xG 0.08–0.11 (41%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba10:44
xG 0.11–1.05 (9%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Kreider – Duclair6:05
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Moore – Stempniak – Hagelin9:55
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Kreider – Hayes2:47
xG 0.04–0.03 (57%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello11:49
xG 0.53–0.62 (46%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Kostka5:41
xG 0.59–0.05 (93%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Kostka11:25
xG 0.64–0.39 (62%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi10:32
xG 0.40–0.42 (49%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).