Sat, Nov 1, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 1, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 08 | 16 | 06 | 120 |
| MIN | 012 | 312 | 16 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:21MINMikael GranlundUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 13:14MINMathew DumbaGWGAssists: Jason Pominville, Zach Parise · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 13:22DALVernon FiddlerAssists: Jamie Oleksiak · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 19:03MINThomas VanekPPAssists: Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 5:03MINNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Charlie Coyle · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:56MINNino Niederreiter: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:38MINNate Prosser: Elbowing2 min
- P1 18:37DALBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:18MINCharlie Coyle: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:55DALJamie Benn: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:59MINErik Haula: Holding2 min
- P3 3:27DALJamie Benn: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:12DALJamie Benn: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Fiddler – Eaves4:55
xG 0.26–0.07 (78%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Benn – Sceviour – Seguin2:20
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Cole – Horcoff – Sceviour7:54
xG 0.26–0.31 (45%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt6:59
xG 0.09–0.31 (23%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Jokipakka3:47
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Benn – Dillon10:48
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Jokipakka – Oleksiak8:01
xG 0.12–0.25 (32%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Coyle12:18
xG 0.80–0.30 (72%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Veilleux – Haula – Fontaine3:18
xG 0.15–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund10:37
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Vanek – Brodziak – Niederreiter5:16
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Brodin4:10
xG 0.38–0.03 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin10:54
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Suter – Folin2:58
xG 0.16–0.03 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).