Sat, Nov 1, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 3, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 112 | 19 | 19 | 330 |
| EDM | 114 | 17 | 06 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:39EDMJordan EberleAssists: Taylor Hall, Martin Marincin · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 19:13VANLuca SbisaAssists: Chris Higgins, Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 16:37VANLinden VeyAssists: Derek Dorsett, Tom Sestito · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
- P2 17:41EDMDavid PerronAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Andrew Ference · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 4:05VANDerek DorsettSHGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:01VANShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:42EDMJesse Joensuu: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:10VANNick Bonino: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:06EDMJordan Eberle: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:03EDMAndrew Ference: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 2:38VANZack Kassian: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Vrbata12:08
xG 0.60–0.05 (92%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Dorsett – Sestito – Vey5:49
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Higgins – Hansen – Bonino9:40
xG 0.29–0.17 (62%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Richardson – Matthias – Kassian11:10
xG 0.23–0.67 (25%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev14:52
xG 0.94–0.49 (66%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Bieksa15:25
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Weber – Sbisa11:59
xG 0.37–0.31 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Yakupov – Draisaitl4:51
xG 0.19–0.04 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins – Yakupov6:48
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins4:38
xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Draisaitl2:03
xG 0.03–0.02 (52%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Petry16:05
xG 0.56–0.35 (62%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Schultz – Hunt14:33
xG 0.52–0.84 (38%)attempts 11–15goals 0–2
- Fayne – Marincin12:35
xG 0.08–0.48 (14%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).