Sun, Nov 2, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Detroit Red Wings 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 17 | 117 | 04 | 1 | 238 |
| BUF | 07 | 16 | 18 | 00 | 2 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:55BUFBrian FlynnAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Tyson Strachan · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 12:55DETTomas TatarAssists: Riley Sheahan, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 4:27DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Brendan Smith · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 13:08BUFChris StewartAssists: Tyler Ennis, Tyson Strachan · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Matt Moulson stopped
- 2. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
- 3. BUF Tyler Ennis scored
- 4. DET Gustav Nyquist scored
- 5. BUF Zemgus Girgensons scored
- 6. DET Henrik Zetterberg stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:56BUFTyson Strachan: Holding2 min
- P1 16:39BUFAndrej Meszaros: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:10DETJoakim Andersson: Interference2 min
- P2 2:37DETDarren Helm: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:15BUFMatt Moulson: Interference2 min
- P2 4:37DETJohan Franzen: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:49BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:34DETHenrik Zetterberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 0:46BUFBrian Gionta: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Girgensons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader14:20
xG 1.18–0.45 (73%)attempts 23–5goals 1–1
- Franzen – Helm – Jurco4:44
xG 0.62–0.20 (76%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Tatar – Sheahan – Jurco4:18
xG 0.05–0.02 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan4:12
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – DeKeyser17:14
xG 1.04–0.39 (73%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Ericsson11:57
xG 0.70–0.39 (64%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Kindl – Lashoff11:14
xG 0.41–0.48 (46%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Stafford – Mitchell – Ennis13:14
xG 0.43–0.41 (51%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Gionta – Moulson – Girgensons10:43
xG 0.44–0.51 (46%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- McCormick – Deslauriers – Flynn6:40
xG 0.04–0.41 (10%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Stewart – Hodgson – Larsson8:12
xG 0.04–0.62 (5%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStrachan – Zadorov10:58
xG 0.25–0.09 (74%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Meszaros – Ristolainen16:30
xG 0.76–0.96 (44%)attempts 13–20goals 1–0
- Gorges – Myers14:19
xG 0.43–0.92 (32%)attempts 5–19goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).