Sun, Nov 2, 2014·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Los Angeles Kings 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 07 | 112 | 113 | 232 |
| CAR | 19 | 218 | 05 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:26CARVictor RaskAssists: Chris Terry, Zach Boychuk · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 0:50CARChris TerryPPAssists: Andrej Sekera, Elias Lindholm · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 5:39LAKMike RichardsPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Justin Williams · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 16:01CARElias LindholmGWGAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Riley Nash · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 7:58LAKAlec MartinezUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:05CARJay Harrison: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:25LAKJustin Williams: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:16CARBrett Bellemore: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:15LAKJarret Stoll: Interference2 min
- P2 17:18LAKMatt Greene: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:43LAKTanner Pearson: Holding2 min
- P3 16:53CARJay Harrison: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Williams – Kopitar6:09
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson5:23
xG 0.19–0.13 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Lewis – Clifford5:49
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Stoll – Brown – King6:30
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Muzzin – Doughty11:26
xG 0.42–0.38 (53%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Greene – McNabb10:03
xG 0.24–0.45 (35%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Regehr – Martinez7:49
xG 0.22–0.52 (30%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestGerbe – Nash – Lindholm6:00
xG 0.32–0.06 (84%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Terry – Boychuk – Rask5:29
xG 0.49–0.32 (60%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Staal – Tlusty – Skinner8:44
xG 0.22–0.27 (45%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- McClement – Dwyer – Malone5:26
xG 0.16–0.31 (34%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bellemore10:24
xG 0.57–0.30 (65%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Sekera – Faulk12:27
xG 0.54–0.52 (51%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Gleason – Harrison8:37
xG 0.16–0.31 (33%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).