Sun, Nov 2, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Calgary Flames 6, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 219 | 111 | 36 | 636 |
| MTL | 04 | 07 | 29 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:58CGYJosh JoorisAssists: Dennis Wideman, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–0
- P1 19:33CGYMarkus GranlundAssists: Jiri Hudler, Johnny Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 17:53CGYCurtis GlencrossGWGAssists: TJ Brodie, Sean Monahan · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–0
- P3 0:37MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Dale Weise, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 8:48CGYJosh JoorisPPAssists: TJ Brodie, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–1
- P3 11:08CGYLance BoumaAssists: Mark Giordano, Brandon Bollig · Snap, 0.05 xG5–1
- P3 13:18MTLLars EllerAssists: Rene Bourque, Andrei Markov · Backhand, 0.15 xG5–2
- P3 16:30CGYMark GiordanoENAssists: Curtis Glencross, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.60 xG6–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:36MTLTravis Moen: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:59MTLRene Bourque: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:45MTLBrendan Gallagher: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:49CGYDavid Jones: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:09MTLAlexei Emelin: Interference2 min
- P2 12:59MTLP.K. Subban: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:49MTLMike Weaver: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:10CGYSean Monahan: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:10MTLLars Eller: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:23CGYDennis Wideman: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:23MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJones – Glencross – Monahan10:22
xG 0.62–0.13 (82%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Granlund7:46
xG 0.47–0.18 (73%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1
- Setoguchi – Byron – Baertschi9:08
xG 0.26–0.47 (35%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Bouma – Bollig – Jooris7:45
xG 0.07–0.30 (20%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell14:06
xG 1.43–0.54 (73%)attempts 16–16goals 1–1
- Giordano – Brodie15:50
xG 0.78–0.53 (60%)attempts 11–18goals 2–1
- Smid – Diaz9:27
xG 0.03–0.12 (19%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Bourque – Eller5:30
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Parenteau – Eller2:28
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk7:06
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 13–5goals 0–2
- Malhotra – Moen – Prust6:16
xG 0.07–0.21 (24%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Beaulieu9:16
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban8:08
xG 0.56–0.52 (52%)attempts 14–8goals 2–2
- Gilbert – Beaulieu2:46
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).