Tue, Nov 4, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Edmonton Oilers 1, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 011 | 115 | 010 | 136 |
| PHI | 28 | 27 | 010 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:59PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Mark Streit, Nicklas Grossmann · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 16:04PHIJakub VoracekGWGAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 4:09PHIPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Chris VandeVelde, Zac Rinaldo · Snap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 9:54EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Jordan Eberle, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 12:01PHILuke SchennAssists: Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:56PHIJakub Voracek: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:30PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:30EDMMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:03PHIWayne Simmonds: Elbowing2 min
- P3 4:45PHIMark Streit: Holding2 min
- P3 10:00PHINick Schultz: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins11:52
xG 0.97–0.71 (58%)attempts 23–13goals 1–1
- Hendricks – Yakupov – Draisaitl5:12
xG 0.20–0.12 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Gordon – Joensuu3:30
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Purcell – Perron – Arcobello11:37
xG 0.25–0.29 (47%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Petry – Marincin14:20
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
- Nikitin – Schultz15:43
xG 0.54–0.82 (40%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Fayne – Klefbom15:02
xG 0.29–0.67 (30%)attempts 15–13goals 0–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Read – Couturier9:54
xG 0.72–0.61 (54%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl9:32
xG 0.22–0.14 (61%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- VandeVelde – Giroux – Voracek2:14
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Umberger – Simmonds12:09
xG 0.28–0.32 (46%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Grossmann14:26
xG 0.75–0.53 (58%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Colaiacovo – Schenn13:30
xG 0.58–0.41 (59%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Schenn – Del Zotto2:33
xG 0.03–0.02 (60%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).