Tue, Nov 4, 2014·Verizon Center, Washington
Calgary Flames 4, Washington Capitals 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 110 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 423 |
| WSH | 113 | 211 | 08 | 02 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:09CGYLance BoumaAssists: Kris Russell, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 10:18WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 10:20CGYMark GiordanoAssists: TJ Brodie, David Jones · Backhand, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 11:03WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Troy Brouwer, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 14:23WSHJoel WardPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 14:50CGYMarkus GranlundUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 4:17CGYSean MonahanGWGAssists: Josh Jooris, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P2 5:15WSHLiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:15CGYDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:03CGYMark Giordano: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:03WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:54CGYCurtis Glencross: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:58CGYDennis Wideman: Delaying game2 min
- P2 16:27WSHTom Wilson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:37CGYBrandon Bollig: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Granlund6:34
xG 0.27–0.04 (86%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Setoguchi – Byron – Baertschi6:10
xG 0.21–0.05 (82%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Jones – Byron – Bouma2:23
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Glencross – Monahan – Jooris2:38
xG 0.11–0.10 (52%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell20:04
xG 0.64–0.41 (61%)attempts 16–16goals 2–0
- Engelland – Smid10:13
xG 0.47–0.55 (46%)attempts 10–14goals 0–2
- Giordano – Brodie16:44
xG 0.33–1.70 (16%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson11:27
xG 1.66–0.29 (85%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Beagle – Latta – O'Brien11:01
xG 0.40–0.12 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Burakovsky9:29
xG 0.19–0.26 (43%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Johansson – Kuznetsov10:56
xG 0.10–0.60 (15%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner17:43
xG 0.87–0.42 (68%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Orpik – Green13:56
xG 0.79–0.49 (62%)attempts 15–11goals 0–2
- Carlson – Schmidt9:56
xG 0.62–0.38 (62%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).