Tue, Nov 4, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 218 | 110 | 19 | 437 |
| CBJ | 19 | 03 | 17 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:33CARZach BoychukAssists: Tim Gleason, Ron Hainsey · Backhand, 0.46 xG1–0
- P1 17:08CARRiley NashAssists: Andrej Sekera, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 18:59CBJNick FolignoPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, David Savard · Slap, 0.63 xG2–1
- P2 6:54CARJustin FaulkSHGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 14:37CBJNick FolignoAssists: Dalton Prout · Snap, 0.50 xG3–2
- P3 19:48CAREric StaalENAssists: Brett Bellemore · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:46CBJBrian Gibbons: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:28CBJScott Hartnell: Interference2 min
- P1 14:10CARJay Harrison: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 14:10CBJScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:00CARVictor Rask: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:29CARVictor Rask: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:23CBJDavid Savard: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:23CARBrett Bellemore: Delaying game2 min
- P3 4:36CBJBrian Gibbons: Interference2 min
- P3 7:31CBJJack Johnson: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 10:27CBJTim Erixon: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nash won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTerry – Boychuk – Rask6:59
xG 0.89–0.24 (79%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Gerbe – Nash – Lindholm7:22
xG 0.35–0.08 (82%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty7:39
xG 0.03–0.13 (17%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- McClement – Dwyer – Skinner4:42
xG 0.07–0.40 (15%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bellemore10:12
xG 0.45–0.32 (59%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Harrison – Faulk2:12
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Gleason – Harrison8:06
xG 0.26–0.68 (28%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Johansen – Gibbons4:54
xG 0.93–0.07 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Atkinson – Johansen5:02
xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Skille – Foligno – Gibbons3:45
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Atkinson – Jenner4:36
xG 0.18–0.11 (61%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestErixon – Savard4:40
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Johnson12:04
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- St-Denis – Savard10:59
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).