Tue, Nov 4, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Detroit Red Wings 1, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 02 | 016 | 114 | 132 |
| OTT | 016 | 17 | 29 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:37OTTErik KarlssonPPAssists: Kyle Turris, David Legwand · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 2:34DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Johan Franzen, Danny DeKeyser · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 14:37OTTPatrick WierciochGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Curtis Lazar · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 19:02OTTClarke MacArthurENAssists: Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.55 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:48DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P1 15:28DETJoakim Andersson: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:31OTTErik Karlsson: Interference2 min
- P2 14:00DETBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:30OTTChris Neil: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:55DETGustav Nyquist: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:56OTTJared Cowen: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Franzen – Nyquist2:37
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan8:11
xG 0.49–0.20 (71%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader8:12
xG 0.26–0.05 (84%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening7:35
xG 0.05–0.21 (19%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – DeKeyser12:01
xG 0.59–0.24 (71%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Kindl – Lashoff11:37
xG 0.42–0.38 (53%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Kindl – DeKeyser2:24
xG 0.04–0.05 (48%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Stone – Lazar8:22
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Legwand – Neil – Smith9:51
xG 0.31–0.09 (78%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Michalek – Condra – Zibanejad8:48
xG 0.23–0.14 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris11:59
xG 0.39–0.90 (30%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCowen – Ceci8:34
xG 0.39–0.05 (89%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Gryba – Wiercioch7:35
xG 0.39–0.12 (77%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Cowen5:01
xG 0.36–0.13 (74%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).