Tue, Nov 4, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 15 | 212 | 15 | 422 |
| MIN | 06 | 013 | 115 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:06PITNick SpalingAssists: Steve Downie, Rob Scuderi · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 2:08PITBrandon SutterGWGAssists: Rob Scuderi, Paul Martin · Snap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 15:33PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.24 xG3–0
- P3 10:42MINNino NiederreiterSHAssists: Ryan Suter, Jonas Brodin · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 18:26PITPatric HornqvistENAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.63 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P2 5:44PITBlake Comeau: Interference2 min
- P2 15:21MINMarco Scandella: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 16:23PITBrandon Sutter: Holding2 min
- P2 19:33PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:33MINRyan Carter: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:33MINRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:05PITSteve Downie: Interference2 min
- P3 9:25PITSimon Despres: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:25MINKyle Brodziak: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:25MINKyle Brodziak: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:25PITChristian Ehrhoff: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist10:34
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Downie – Sutter – Spaling9:05
xG 0.33–0.05 (86%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Adams – Goc – Sill5:32
xG 0.11–0.07 (63%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Malkin – Comeau10:48
xG 0.18–0.34 (34%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Despres10:50
xG 0.36–0.21 (64%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Martin – Letang16:37
xG 0.42–0.32 (57%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Bortuzzo11:33
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Coyle11:34
xG 0.21–0.06 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Haula – Niederreiter – Fontaine3:08
xG 0.09–0.02 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Granlund3:39
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Haula – Fontaine3:25
xG 0.07–0.05 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba4:34
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Suter – Prosser2:36
xG 0.08–0.07 (55%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Prosser – Dumba4:25
xG 0.03–0.04 (40%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).