Tue, Nov 4, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Nashville Predators 1, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 08 | 19 | 07 | 124 |
| WPG | 210 | 010 | 16 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:53WPGAndrew LaddPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Bryan Little · Deflected, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 5:29WPGMark ScheifelePPGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 16:17NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Shea Weber, Mike Ribeiro · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 18:20WPGBlake WheelerENAssists: Jacob Trouba · Snap, 0.64 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:35NSHMatt Cullen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 3:41NSHColin Wilson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:37WPGEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:37NSHRoman Josi: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:09WPGDustin Byfuglien: Elbowing2 min
- P2 16:53WPGAndrew Ladd: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:20WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min
- P3 12:28NSHMattias Ekholm: Holding2 min
- P3 14:53WPGToby Enstrom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:08NSHTaylor Beck: Spearing double minor4 min
- P3 19:08WPGJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Wilson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Roy – Smith6:37
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Forsberg11:20
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Roy – Wilson – Smith2:26
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Nystrom – Beck2:14
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Ekholm2:27
xG 0.17–0.12 (60%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Weber – Josi12:10
xG 0.47–0.46 (50%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Weber – Jones2:21
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Slater – Galiardi4:02
xG 0.22–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Ladd – Little – Frolik11:27
xG 0.14–0.26 (35%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Kane – Scheifele10:51
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClitsome – Postma6:12
xG 0.22–0.08 (73%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian11:15
xG 0.21–0.33 (39%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba9:48
xG 0.20–0.33 (38%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).