Wed, Nov 5, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 2, Buffalo Sabres 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 05 | 010 | 113 | 04 | 2 | 232 |
| BUF | 09 | 010 | 16 | 07 | 1 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 0:19MTLPA ParenteauAssists: P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P3 3:14BUFDrew StaffordPPAssists: Tyler Myers, Tyler Ennis · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. BUF Brian Gionta scored
- 2. MTL Alex Galchenyuk scored
- 3. BUF Matt Moulson stopped
- 4. MTL David Desharnais stopped
- 5. BUF Zemgus Girgensons stopped
- 6. MTL PA Parenteau scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:27BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:27MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:44MTLMax Pacioretty: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:30BUFTorrey Mitchell: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:07MTLDavid Desharnais: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:24MTLNathan Beaulieu: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:23MTLJiri Sekac: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Girgensons won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Desharnais – Pacioretty14:40
xG 0.66–0.16 (81%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk13:59
xG 0.62–0.38 (62%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Prust – Weise2:15
xG 0.08–0.06 (58%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Pacioretty – Weise2:23
xG 0.03–0.03 (56%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban18:15
xG 0.96–0.15 (87%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Emelin5:12
xG 0.26–0.10 (72%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Tinordi8:48
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Hodgson – Larsson8:09
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- McCormick – Deslauriers – Flynn7:55
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Gionta – Moulson – Girgensons12:38
xG 0.36–0.35 (50%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Stewart – Ennis10:45
xG 0.32–0.71 (31%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Myers16:44
xG 0.52–0.23 (69%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Strachan – Zadorov10:53
xG 0.57–0.56 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Meszaros – Myers2:02
xG 0.03–0.12 (22%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).