Wed, Nov 5, 2014·Honda Center, Anaheim
New York Islanders 3, Anaheim Ducks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 112 | 110 | 011 | 13 | 336 |
| ANA | 04 | 216 | 013 | 01 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:38NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Calvin de Haan, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 0:10NYIKyle OkposoPPAssists: Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 9:15ANAMatt BeleskeyPPAssists: Ryan Kesler, Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.43 xG2–1
- P2 18:51ANAEmerson EtemAssists: Cam Fowler, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 2:18NYIJohn TavaresPPGWGAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:28ANASami Vatanen: Interference2 min
- P1 10:37NYIBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:34ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:21NYIThomas Hickey: Holding2 min · PPG
- OT 1:25ANASami Vatanen: Elbowing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Kulemin – Tavares15:21
xG 0.82–0.50 (62%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Boulton – Martin – Strome6:38
xG 0.09–0.26 (25%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Lee10:51
xG 0.14–0.32 (30%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Nelson – Conacher11:14
xG 0.25–0.72 (26%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan17:46
xG 0.71–0.61 (54%)attempts 25–16goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey17:07
xG 0.39–0.98 (28%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
- Boychuk – Leddy16:10
xG 0.40–1.02 (28%)attempts 19–21goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Beleskey9:08
xG 0.96–0.21 (82%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Smith-Pelly – Etem – Rakell4:47
xG 0.52–0.12 (82%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Jackman – Etem – Rakell5:12
xG 0.34–0.07 (82%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Jackman – Thompson – Maroon7:02
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Lindholm18:05
xG 1.31–0.42 (76%)attempts 21–19goals 0–0
- Stoner – Vatanen2:06
xG 0.14–0.03 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Stoner – Manson13:03
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).