Thu, Nov 6, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Edmonton Oilers 2, Boston Bruins 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 17 | 013 | 16 | 226 |
| BOS | 16 | 012 | 414 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:49EDMBoyd GordonPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.53 xG1–0
- P1 18:45BOSReilly SmithAssists: Brad Marchand, David Warsofsky · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 1:44EDMMark ArcobelloAssists: Nail Yakupov · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 11:04BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 12:29BOSCarl SoderbergPPGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 13:38BOSDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Loui Eriksson, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 19:52BOSMilan LucicENAssists: David Krejci, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:52BOSDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:44EDMMatt Hendricks: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:34BOSDavid Krejci: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 0:00BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:49EDMNikita Nikitin: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:50BOSChris Kelly: Holding2 min
- P3 11:58EDMKeith Aulie: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 12:29EDMNikita Nikitin: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Campbell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Arcobello – Yakupov8:11
xG 0.82–0.10 (89%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Joensuu6:59
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Purcell – Pakarinen – Draisaitl3:57
xG 0.13–0.11 (55%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins12:42
xG 0.37–0.41 (48%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Aulie12:04
xG 0.93–0.19 (83%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Nikitin – Schultz12:12
xG 0.39–0.38 (50%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2
- Fayne – Klefbom13:02
xG 0.41–0.52 (44%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith11:49
xG 0.60–0.30 (67%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Kelly – Campbell – Paille5:43
xG 0.01–0.05 (19%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Soderberg – Fraser7:28
xG 0.08–0.35 (18%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Krejci – Lucic – Griffith7:53
xG 0.19–0.65 (23%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Hamilton17:26
xG 0.70–0.52 (58%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Warsofsky – Trotman8:14
xG 0.21–0.25 (45%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Morrow15:03
xG 0.14–0.99 (13%)attempts 9–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).