Thu, Nov 6, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Florida Panthers 1, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 117 | 012 | 135 |
| PHI | 210 | 29 | 011 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:53PHISean CouturierAssists: Brayden Schenn, Matt Read · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 6:38PHIMichael Del ZottoGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Sean Couturier · Snap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 2:50PHIPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo · Snap, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 11:50FLANick BjugstadPPAssists: Jimmy Hayes, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–3
- P2 12:29PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Claude Giroux, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:58PHIVincent Lecavalier: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:28FLADerek MacKenzie: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:01PHIR.J. Umberger: Interference2 min
- P2 10:28PHIChris VandeVelde: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:05PHICarlo Colaiacovo: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:17FLANick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:33FLATomas Kopecky: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:33PHISteve Mason: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:33PHIVincent Lecavalier: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:33FLAVincent Trocheck: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestThornton – MacKenzie – Kopecky10:41
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Boyes – Fleischmann – Trocheck2:27
xG 0.06–0.05 (55%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Trocheck – Grimaldi7:25
xG 0.17–0.28 (37%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Boyes – Jokinen – Barkov6:36
xG 0.12–0.39 (24%)attempts 7–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Campbell – Ekblad15:36
xG 0.50–0.92 (35%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Kulikov14:34
xG 0.30–0.88 (25%)attempts 14–16goals 0–2
- Olsen – Gudbranson13:47
xG 0.15–0.90 (15%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Read – Couturier10:28
xG 0.83–0.27 (75%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Rinaldo – Akeson – Bellemare7:44
xG 0.40–0.02 (94%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Umberger – VandeVelde6:30
xG 0.57–0.24 (70%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Simmonds7:46
xG 0.36–0.13 (74%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Del Zotto14:02
xG 1.11–0.42 (72%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Streit – Grossmann14:56
xG 0.74–0.19 (79%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
- Colaiacovo – Schenn13:43
xG 0.22–0.34 (39%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).