Thu, Nov 6, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Minnesota Wild 0, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 09 | 010 | 016 | 035 |
| OTT | 05 | 24 | 18 | 317 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:23OTTClarke MacArthurPPGWGAssists: Bobby Ryan, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 4:47OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Eric Gryba, Curtis Lazar · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 2:06OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Mark Stone, Patrick Wiercioch · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:45MINChristian Folin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 9:11MINJustin Fontaine: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:01OTTCurtis Lazar: Embellishment2 min
- P1 15:01MINMathew Dumba: Interference2 min
- P2 0:57OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:57MINMarco Scandella: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P2 0:57MINMarco Scandella: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:57MINMarco Scandella: Misconduct10 min
- P2 6:04OTTErik Karlsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:03MINThomas Vanek: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:05OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Interference2 min
- P2 17:05MINStephane Veilleux: Embellishment2 min
- P3 7:27MINMikael Granlund: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:38OTTDavid Legwand: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:26OTTChris Neil: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Coyle12:56
xG 0.67–0.18 (79%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Veilleux – Brodziak – Carter3:47
xG 0.28–0.12 (69%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Haula – Niederreiter – Fontaine7:02
xG 0.09–0.03 (78%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Granlund13:35
xG 0.55–0.51 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin12:01
xG 0.49–0.09 (85%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Suter – Prosser2:41
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Scandella – Dumba3:46
xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Ryan – Turris10:39
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Legwand – Neil – Smith10:43
xG 0.17–0.21 (44%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Stone – Lazar8:15
xG 0.28–0.58 (33%)attempts 6–9goals 2–0
- Michalek – Chiasson – Zibanejad9:31
xG 0.00–0.52 (0%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Cowen2:00
xG 0.16–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Borowiecki12:10
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Gryba – Cowen6:02
xG 0.03–0.12 (17%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).