Thu, Nov 6, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
New Jersey Devils 3, St. Louis Blues 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 09 | 013 | 35 | 327 |
| STL | 111 | 15 | 213 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:55STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Jori Lehtera · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 11:05STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 7:10STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: Jori Lehtera, Vladimir Tarasenko · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 16:35NJDMichael RyderAssists: Damien Brunner, Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 17:28STLDavid BackesPPGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 18:09NJDMarek ZidlickyAssists: Mike Sislo, Steve Bernier · Slap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 19:09NJDMichael RyderAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Patrik Elias · Snap, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P2 13:56STLJori Lehtera: Holding2 min
- P2 16:55STLJori Lehtera: Boarding2 min
- P3 1:27NJDJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:36NJDDainius Zubrus: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:34STLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:00NJDDamien Brunner: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Elias won the faceoff against Lehtera
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Gionta – Sislo4:47
xG 0.26–0.03 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Jagr – Clowe – Zajac4:38
xG 0.09–0.05 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Jagr – Zajac – Brunner9:50
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Bernier – Josefson – Brunner3:08
xG 0.06–0.05 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGelinas – Larsson13:02
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Salvador – Larsson2:26
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Gelinas4:47
xG 0.14–0.04 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:56
xG 0.91–0.24 (79%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Ott – Lapierre – Reaves5:38
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – Steen – Stastny9:19
xG 0.39–0.41 (49%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Backes – Berglund – Jaskin10:25
xG 0.10–0.43 (19%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Cole13:06
xG 1.07–0.47 (70%)attempts 15–12goals 2–1
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson13:20
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo18:26
xG 0.16–0.54 (23%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).