Thu, Nov 6, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Winnipeg Jets 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 18 | 213 | 010 | 04 | 2 | 435 |
| WPG | 115 | 110 | 110 | 02 | 1 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:36WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Bryan Little, Zach Bogosian · Deflected, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 11:16PITSimon DespresAssists: Brandon Sutter, Steve Downie · Snap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 6:50PITBrandon SutterAssists: Robert Bortuzzo · Snap, 0.24 xG2–1
- P2 17:04PITSteve DownieAssists: Nick Spaling, Brandon Sutter · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 18:28WPGJacob TroubaAssists: Evander Kane, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 3:55WPGEvander KaneAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.24 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. WPG Blake Wheeler scored
- 2. PIT Evgeni Malkin scored
- 3. WPG Andrew Ladd stopped
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
- 5. WPG Evander Kane stopped
Penalties (30)
- P1 15:57PITRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:57WPGBlake Wheeler: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:12WPGChris Thorburn: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:11PITKris Letang: Holding2 min
- P2 8:06WPGEvander Kane: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:06WPGEvander Kane: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:06PITSimon Despres: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:06PITSimon Despres: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:06WPGMark Scheifele: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:06PITMarc-Andre Fleury: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:21WPGGrant Clitsome: Interference2 min
- P2 10:53WPGMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:57WPGZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:57PITBlake Comeau: Interference2 min
- P2 14:57PITBlake Comeau: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:04WPGDustin Byfuglien: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:04PITSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:20PITSteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:20WPGDustin Byfuglien: Misconduct10 min
- P3 4:58PITRob Scuderi: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:58WPGMathieu Perreault: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:58PITSteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:45PITZach Sill: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 9:45WPGJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:45WPGJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:29PITCraig Adams: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:29WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:07WPGMathieu Perreault: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:30PITNick Spaling: Hooking2 min
- OT 3:54PITSimon Despres: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDownie – Sutter – Spaling5:39
xG 0.60–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 3–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist10:15
xG 0.88–0.62 (59%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Adams – Goc – Sill2:42
xG 0.06–0.13 (29%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Malkin – Comeau7:50
xG 0.18–0.59 (23%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Scuderi – Despres10:06
xG 0.27–0.32 (46%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Letang3:06
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Martin – Letang11:13
xG 0.65–0.83 (44%)attempts 14–8goals 0–2
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Little – Frolik10:17
xG 0.71–0.25 (74%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Perreault – Lowry3:47
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Kane – Scheifele8:05
xG 0.56–0.53 (51%)attempts 6–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Bogosian10:46
xG 0.99–0.25 (80%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Clitsome – Postma5:33
xG 0.25–0.32 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 0–2
- Stuart – Trouba8:18
xG 0.21–0.53 (28%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).