Thu, Nov 6, 2014·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
New York Islanders 2, Los Angeles Kings 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 16 | 012 | 05 | 03 | 2 | 226 |
| LAK | 110 | 05 | 011 | 03 | 0 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:49LAKDwight KingAssists: Mike Richards, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 16:32NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: John Tavares, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. LAK Anze Kopitar stopped
- 2. NYI Kyle Okposo scored
- 3. LAK Jeff Carter stopped
- 4. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:20LAKMike Richards: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:24NYITravis Hamonic: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:15LAKRobyn Regehr: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:28LAKBrayden McNabb: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 9:12NYIRyan Strome: Boarding2 min
- P3 3:53LAKDrew Doughty: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 9:13NYIKyle Okposo: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:50NYITravis Hamonic: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Grabovski – Clutterbuck11:09
xG 0.48–0.11 (82%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Lee – Nelson – Strome8:27
xG 0.39–0.15 (72%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Boulton – Martin – Cizikas4:23
xG 0.03–0.19 (13%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Okposo – Kulemin – Tavares10:04
xG 0.13–0.96 (12%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey14:16
xG 0.68–0.35 (66%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy11:03
xG 0.34–0.54 (38%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Hamonic – de Haan12:40
xG 0.26–0.70 (27%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Richards – King4:46
xG 0.50–0.07 (87%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Richards – King – Nolan2:58
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Stoll – Lewis – Clifford10:20
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson8:25
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty14:48
xG 0.70–0.53 (57%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Regehr – Martinez13:09
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Greene – McNabb8:41
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).