Fri, Nov 7, 2014·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 011 | 210 | 08 | 02 | 231 |
| CAR | 04 | 110 | 118 | 13 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:43CARJeff SkinnerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 11:15CBJScott HartnellAssists: Boone Jenner, Frédéric St-Denis · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 18:44CBJScott HartnellAssists: Boone Jenner, Cam Atkinson · Snap, 0.55 xG2–1
- P3 11:51CARVictor RaskAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 4:22CARElias LindholmPPGWGAssists: Eric Staal, Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 8:00CBJTim Erixon: Interference2 min
- P1 13:23CARBrett Bellemore: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:04CARChris Terry: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:13CBJBoone Jenner: Interference2 min
- P2 7:50CBJAlexander Wennberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:38CBJNick Foligno: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:48CARPatrick Dwyer: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 2:34CBJDavid Savard: Interference2 min
- P3 8:51CBJFedor Tyutin: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:27CBJDalton Prout: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:27CAREric Staal: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:51CARBrett Bellemore: Interference2 min
- OT 3:10CBJDavid Savard: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestBoll – Tropp – Wennberg2:38
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Atkinson – Jenner8:27
xG 0.71–0.61 (54%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Foligno – Johansen – Gibbons7:10
xG 0.13–0.08 (60%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Skille – Calvert – Wennberg2:26
xG 0.04–0.04 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSt-Denis – Prout7:57
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Wisniewski – Erixon12:44
xG 0.90–0.73 (55%)attempts 13–22goals 1–1
- Tyutin – Savard12:16
xG 0.29–0.49 (38%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Staal – Tlusty5:20
xG 0.57–0.15 (79%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- McClement – Dwyer – Skinner2:58
xG 0.11–0.01 (90%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Terry – Boychuk – Rask3:10
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Nash – Skinner – Lindholm3:41
xG 0.13–0.11 (56%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Faulk11:53
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Liles – Harrison9:31
xG 0.36–0.65 (36%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Bellemore10:10
xG 0.40–0.74 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).