Sat, Nov 8, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Calgary Flames 6, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 312 | 35 | 625 |
| FLA | 112 | 311 | 08 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:17FLAScottie UpshallAssists: Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 4:06FLANick BjugstadAssists: Willie Mitchell, Dmitry Kulikov · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 4:39CGYDavid JonesAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–2
- P2 7:37FLAScottie UpshallAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 9:44CGYMark GiordanoSHAssists: Paul Byron, Lance Bouma · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 12:56CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Curtis Glencross, Markus Granlund · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P2 13:31FLAJimmy HayesAssists: Scottie Upshall, Aaron Ekblad · Tip-in, 0.27 xG3–4
- P3 4:53CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–4
- P3 17:42CGYLance BoumaGWGAssists: Jiri Hudler, Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.05 xG5–4
- P3 18:55CGYJohnny GaudreauENAssists: Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.66 xG6–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:21CGYCurtis Glencross: Interference2 min
- P1 12:40FLAScottie Upshall: Holding2 min
- P2 9:01CGYDennis Wideman: Holding2 min
- P2 15:58CGYLadislav Smid: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:53FLARocco Grimaldi: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:32FLAJussi Jokinen: Embellishment2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJones – Gaudreau – Monahan7:58
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Jones – Glencross – Monahan5:22
xG 0.34–0.11 (75%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Setoguchi – Byron – Baertschi3:00
xG 0.10–0.13 (43%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Bouma – Bollig – Jooris2:52
xG 0.04–0.08 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Smid10:12
xG 0.78–0.26 (75%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Giordano – Brodie17:54
xG 0.40–0.57 (41%)attempts 9–15goals 2–1
- Wideman – Russell15:41
xG 0.33–0.66 (34%)attempts 13–20goals 1–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Bjugstad – Huberdeau12:43
xG 0.65–0.38 (63%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Upshall – Hayes – Trocheck8:00
xG 0.87–0.64 (58%)attempts 15–6goals 3–1
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Kopecky9:27
xG 0.38–0.23 (63%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Grimaldi – Barkov13:11
xG 0.17–0.25 (40%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Kulikov8:48
xG 0.61–0.21 (74%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Mitchell – Ekblad2:08
xG 0.27–0.06 (82%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Campbell – Ekblad12:52
xG 0.83–0.74 (53%)attempts 19–8goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).