Sat, Nov 8, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Minnesota Wild 1, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 012 | 19 | 010 | 131 |
| MTL | 07 | 210 | 214 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:26MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 14:59MINJason PominvilleAssists: Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 19:10MTLLars EllerGWGAssists: Brandon Prust, Jiri Sekac · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 4:46MTLJiri SekacAssists: Brandon Prust, Lars Eller · Tip-in, 0.32 xG1–3
- P3 6:04MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: PA Parenteau, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:31MINMikko Koivu: Holding2 min
- P1 8:22MTLAndrei Markov: Interference2 min
- P1 15:25MTLBrendan Gallagher: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:31MTLNathan Beaulieu: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:31MINStephane Veilleux: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:31MTLNathan Beaulieu: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:31MINStephane Veilleux: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Vanek – Granlund12:45
xG 0.86–0.44 (66%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Koivu – Zucker – Coyle12:40
xG 0.63–0.56 (53%)attempts 14–14goals 0–2
- Brodziak – Niederreiter – Fontaine12:44
xG 0.57–0.54 (52%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Veilleux – Carter – Haula9:22
xG 0.21–0.23 (47%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin20:30
xG 0.71–0.39 (65%)attempts 30–8goals 0–0
- Ballard – Dumba5:26
xG 0.30–0.09 (77%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Scandella – Folin16:43
xG 0.99–0.78 (56%)attempts 20–15goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPrust – Eller – Sekac11:33
xG 1.07–0.24 (81%)attempts 19–10goals 2–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk13:26
xG 0.62–0.60 (51%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Desharnais – Pacioretty12:54
xG 0.54–0.55 (50%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Malhotra – Moen – Weise9:49
xG 0.05–0.57 (9%)attempts 3–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Beaulieu13:21
xG 1.00–0.43 (70%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Weaver – Emelin14:56
xG 0.49–0.58 (46%)attempts 12–16goals 2–0
- Markov – Subban20:55
xG 0.64–1.12 (37%)attempts 14–29goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).