Sat, Nov 8, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Winnipeg Jets 2, Ottawa Senators 1 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 114 | 010 | 09 | 04 | 1 | 237 |
| OTT | 17 | 012 | 013 | 06 | 0 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:48OTTChris NeilPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 17:49WPGToby EnstromPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Dustin Byfuglien · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. OTT Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 2. WPG Blake Wheeler stopped
- 3. OTT Erik Karlsson stopped
- 4. WPG Bryan Little stopped
- 5. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
- 6. WPG Evander Kane stopped
- 7. OTT Milan Michalek stopped
- 8. WPG Andrew Ladd stopped
- 9. OTT David Legwand stopped
- 10. WPG Mark Scheifele stopped
- 11. OTT Colin Greening stopped
- 12. WPG Mathieu Perreault scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:43OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:43WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 11:26WPGToby Enstrom: Holding2 min
- P1 16:28OTTKyle Turris: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:06OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:14WPGMathieu Perreault: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:14OTTErik Karlsson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:42WPGMark Stuart: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Slater – Galiardi4:35
xG 0.35–0.14 (71%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ladd – Little – Frolik14:30
xG 0.43–0.53 (44%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Kane – Scheifele14:38
xG 0.26–0.58 (31%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Bogosian14:46
xG 0.53–0.20 (73%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Clitsome – Postma5:34
xG 0.10–0.19 (35%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba14:36
xG 0.38–0.65 (37%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMichalek – Greening – Zibanejad7:28
xG 0.38–0.14 (73%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Condra – Smith – Hoffman3:04
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Condra – Turris7:48
xG 0.37–0.34 (52%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Greening – Zibanejad – Lazar2:37
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wiercioch4:04
xG 0.56–0.11 (83%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Cowen – Ceci16:25
xG 0.85–0.40 (68%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
- Gryba – Wiercioch9:10
xG 0.39–0.15 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).