Sat, Nov 8, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Tampa Bay Lightning 7, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 415 | 218 | 15 | 738 |
| CBJ | 04 | 211 | 217 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:46TBLJT BrownAssists: Jason Garrison, Andrej Sustr · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 6:07TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Vladislav Namestnikov · Snap, 0.31 xG2–0
- P1 12:31TBLAnton StralmanPPAssists: Ryan Callahan, Steven Stamkos · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–0
- P1 14:41TBLBrian BoyleAssists: Brenden Morrow, JT Brown · Snap, 0.19 xG4–0
- P2 4:11CBJScott HartnellPPAssists: James Wisniewski, Tim Erixon · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–1
- P2 5:38TBLRyan CallahanGWGAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Radko Gudas · Deflected, 0.29 xG5–1
- P2 8:10CBJScott HartnellPPAssists: Nick Foligno, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–2
- P2 10:05TBLTyler JohnsonPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.06 xG6–2
- P3 1:01CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Brian Gibbons, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–3
- P3 5:10CBJNick FolignoPPAssists: James Wisniewski, Tim Erixon · Wrist, 0.22 xG6–4
- P3 19:09TBLTyler JohnsonENAssists: Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.66 xG7–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:23CBJDalton Prout: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:10CBJTim Erixon: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P1 18:45TBLEric Brewer: Interference2 min
- P2 3:11TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:27TBLAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:31CBJDalton Prout: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:42TBLJonathan Drouin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:12TBLAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:09CBJRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:09TBLRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:09CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Boyle – Brown9:35
xG 1.37–0.34 (80%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Stamkos13:46
xG 0.97–0.40 (71%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Paquette – Drouin9:57
xG 0.77–0.26 (75%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov10:26
xG 0.61–0.51 (54%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Gudas10:52
xG 1.34–0.24 (85%)attempts 21–7goals 2–0
- Carle – Stralman18:00
xG 0.98–0.58 (63%)attempts 16–19goals 0–1
- Brewer – Sustr12:11
xG 0.70–0.38 (65%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Atkinson – Jenner12:37
xG 0.86–0.70 (55%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Atkinson – Gibbons – Jenner3:10
xG 0.01–0.07 (10%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Foligno – Johansen2:30
xG 0.03–0.25 (12%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Foligno – Johansen – Gibbons10:02
xG 0.07–0.35 (17%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Tyutin – Savard14:53
xG 0.52–1.06 (33%)attempts 10–15goals 0–3
- St-Denis – Prout14:59
xG 0.32–1.11 (22%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
- Wisniewski – Erixon15:21
xG 0.65–1.56 (29%)attempts 22–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).