Sat, Nov 8, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
San Jose Sharks 5, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 18 | 09 | 412 | 529 |
| DAL | 212 | 112 | 016 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:03DALTyler SeguinAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Kevin Connauton · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 10:26DALTyler SeguinAssists: Erik Cole, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 17:14SJSJames SheppardAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 15:28DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Antoine Roussel, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.27 xG1–3
- P3 3:51SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–3
- P3 6:38SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Logan Couture, Patrick Marleau · Slap, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 10:23SJSBrent BurnsGWGAssists: James Sheppard, Tomas Hertl · Slap, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 19:18SJSJoe ThorntonENAssists: Logan Couture, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.64 xG5–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 13:46SJSJustin Braun: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:31DALTrevor Daley: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:00SJSTyler Kennedy: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:18SJSTyler Kennedy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:40DALJordie Benn: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:10SJSMatt Irwin: Embellishment2 min
- P3 6:10DALAntoine Roussel: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:56SJSJoe Pavelski: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:48SJSTye McGinn: Delaying game2 min
- P3 18:51DALAntoine Roussel: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:51DALAntoine Roussel: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 18:51SJSAlex Stalock: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Nieto13:56
xG 0.74–0.30 (71%)attempts 22–9goals 0–1
- Kennedy – Sheppard – Hertl8:25
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Burish – Desjardins – McGinn7:46
xG 0.15–0.30 (33%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Marleau – Couture – Wingels13:02
xG 0.54–0.86 (39%)attempts 15–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Vlasic – Braun15:40
xG 0.65–0.69 (49%)attempts 16–22goals 1–0
- Burns – Mueller14:37
xG 0.55–0.79 (41%)attempts 24–18goals 1–1
- Demers – Irwin15:16
xG 0.53–1.05 (34%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Horcoff – Sceviour10:01
xG 0.67–0.20 (77%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin9:19
xG 0.38–0.44 (47%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Roussel – Garbutt10:19
xG 0.17–0.28 (37%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – McKenzie10:40
xG 0.47–0.64 (43%)attempts 10–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Benn17:22
xG 1.43–0.39 (79%)attempts 31–14goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Connauton9:43
xG 0.69–0.24 (74%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Daley – Dillon17:12
xG 0.31–0.85 (27%)attempts 11–27goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).