Tue, Nov 11, 2014·Prudential Center, Newark
Minnesota Wild 1, New Jersey Devils 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 06 | 010 | 18 | 124 |
| NJD | 06 | 210 | 17 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:42NJDTuomo RuutuAssists: Seth Helgeson, Adam Larsson · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 9:53NJDMichael CammalleriGWGAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Andy Greene · Snap, 0.28 xG0–2
- P3 5:24MINRyan CarterSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 19:22NJDTravis ZajacENAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Marek Zidlicky · Snap, 0.59 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:18MINMarco Scandella: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:26NJDSeth Helgeson: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:28NJDMichael Ryder: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:33MINMarco Scandella: Interference2 min
- P2 18:04MINJonathon Blum: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:23NJDSteve Bernier: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:28MINCharlie Coyle: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 6:56MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:27NJDJacob Josefson: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:09MINJustin Fontaine: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Coyle7:06
xG 0.41–0.15 (74%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Koivu – Pominville – Zucker2:41
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Haula – Niederreiter – Fontaine4:14
xG 0.15–0.04 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Granlund6:38
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin16:24
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Ballard – Blum6:16
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Scandella – Prosser10:36
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Cammalleri – Zajac10:48
xG 0.63–0.42 (60%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Zubrus – Bernier – Gionta6:57
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Josefson – Brunner5:22
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Elias – Ryder – Havlat7:21
xG 0.08–0.24 (26%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson11:46
xG 0.60–0.16 (79%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Greene – Larsson3:11
xG 0.04–0.05 (46%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Helgeson – Larsson5:58
xG 0.10–0.26 (28%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).