Tue, Nov 11, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Colorado Avalanche 0, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 05 | 08 | 07 | 020 |
| NYI | 213 | 215 | 218 | 646 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:33NYINick LeddyGWGAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 5:21NYIAnders LeePPUnassisted · Snap, 0.25 xG0–2
- P2 6:38NYITravis HamonicAssists: John Tavares, Nikolay Kulemin · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 11:32NYINikolay KuleminSHAssists: Frans Nielsen · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–4
- P3 6:03NYICasey CizikasAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Cory Conacher · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–5
- P3 8:01NYIRyan StromeAssists: Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:59COLJamie McGinn: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 6:01NYIKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:01COLJan Hejda: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:01COLJan Hejda: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:58NYIJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:13COLAlex Tanguay: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:17NYIFrans Nielsen: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:10COLJamie McGinn: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:19NYINick Leddy: Interference2 min
- P3 8:06COLDennis Everberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:24COLCody McLeod: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – O'Reilly – Duchene13:41
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Iginla – Landeskog – MacKinnon12:13
xG 0.40–0.83 (32%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Talbot – McLeod – Cliche5:46
xG 0.09–0.70 (12%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Tanguay – Mitchell – Everberg6:59
xG 0.15–0.83 (16%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Barrie2:13
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Guenin – Barrie10:06
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
- Holden – Redmond11:38
xG 0.11–0.78 (12%)attempts 4–12goals 0–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Nelson – Strome8:39
xG 0.63–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Okposo – Kulemin – Tavares12:53
xG 1.27–0.69 (65%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Conacher7:42
xG 0.63–0.51 (55%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Clutterbuck9:41
xG 0.36–0.40 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan14:21
xG 1.07–0.51 (67%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey12:53
xG 1.51–1.07 (58%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Boychuk – Leddy11:34
xG 0.50–0.07 (88%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).