Tue, Nov 11, 2014·Verizon Center, Washington
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 15 | 110 | 011 | 226 |
| WSH | 313 | 013 | 16 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:36WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Troy Brouwer, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–1
- P1 7:49WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 9:52CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 16:04WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Jay Beagle, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 19:03CBJDavid SavardAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 14:39WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Nate Schmidt · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:05CBJBrian Gibbons: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 6:27CBJFedor Tyutin: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:15WSHJason Chimera: Interference2 min
- P1 18:41CBJBoone Jenner: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:48WSHBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
- P2 10:13CBJCorey Tropp: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:44WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:00WSHJay Beagle: Holding2 min
- P3 19:08CBJCam Atkinson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Atkinson – Jenner8:17
xG 0.42–0.19 (69%)attempts 14–5goals 2–1
- Foligno – Johansen – Gibbons9:20
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Boll – Tyrell – Chaput6:05
xG 0.02–0.17 (11%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Cracknell – Tropp – Wennberg8:07
xG 0.05–0.59 (8%)attempts 5–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSt-Denis – Prout12:28
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Savard13:56
xG 0.35–0.16 (69%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Wisniewski – Erixon10:36
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Johansson – Burakovsky8:12
xG 0.69–0.06 (92%)attempts 12–7goals 2–1
- Latta – Kuznetsov – O'Brien5:51
xG 0.08–0.09 (45%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Beagle10:08
xG 0.27–0.45 (38%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
- Chimera – Ward – Fehr11:59
xG 0.05–0.23 (19%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Schmidt11:15
xG 0.79–0.11 (87%)attempts 14–6goals 2–1
- Niskanen – Alzner13:54
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 14–21goals 1–1
- Orpik – Green2:00
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).