Tue, Nov 11, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Winnipeg Jets 0, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 08 | 09 | 012 | 029 |
| MTL | 010 | 111 | 26 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:21MTLLars EllerGWGAssists: Jiri Sekac, Mike Weaver · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 7:47MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 19:23MTLTomas PlekanecENAssists: Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.67 xG0–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:56WPGEvander Kane: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 18:51WPGEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:37MTLMike Weaver: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:02MTLPA Parenteau: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:53WPGMathieu Perreault: Elbowing2 min
- P3 18:28MTLJiri Sekac: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:46WPGJim Slater: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Little – Frolik10:42
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Kane – Scheifele13:04
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Galiardi4:01
xG 0.05–0.08 (39%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Bogosian12:07
xG 0.44–0.24 (64%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Clitsome – Postma4:13
xG 0.15–0.08 (66%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba13:27
xG 0.23–0.36 (39%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPrust – Eller – Sekac10:45
xG 0.38–0.25 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Desharnais – Pacioretty10:04
xG 0.22–0.37 (37%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Bowman – Weise5:25
xG 0.03–0.20 (12%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk11:22
xG 0.38–0.64 (37%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Weaver – Emelin14:14
xG 0.42–0.40 (51%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Beaulieu13:45
xG 0.54–0.60 (48%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
- Markov – Subban16:10
xG 0.22–0.59 (27%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).