Tue, Nov 11, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Buffalo Sabres 1, St. Louis Blues 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 015 | 05 | 19 | 129 |
| STL | 110 | 29 | 310 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:08STLJori LehteraAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 3:21STLJori LehteraGWGAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 14:26STLJori LehteraSHAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 0:59BUFTyler EnnisPPAssists: Matt Moulson, Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–3
- P3 16:38STLDavid BackesPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Alexander Steen · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 17:39STLJoakim LindstromPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Magnus Paajarvi · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–5
- P3 18:37STLJoakim LindstromPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk · Slap, 0.06 xG1–6
Penalties (16)
- P1 4:51BUFTyler Myers: Holding2 min
- P1 8:37BUFMike Weber: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:11STLIan Cole: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:11STLIan Cole: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:11BUFNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:11STLAlexander Steen: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:11BUFTyler Ennis: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:17BUFChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:17STLAlexander Steen: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:17BUFCody McCormick: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:17STLAlexander Steen: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:17STLCarl Gunnarsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:20BUFMike Weber: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:56STLSteve Ott: Holding2 min
- P3 9:32BUFCody Hodgson: Interference2 min
- P3 14:18BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCormick won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Ennis – Girgensons10:41
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Gionta – Mitchell – Flynn7:22
xG 0.23–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- McCormick – Stewart – Foligno6:41
xG 0.18–0.21 (47%)attempts 4–8goals 0–2
- Stafford – Hodgson – Deslauriers9:55
xG 0.09–0.24 (26%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Zadorov10:47
xG 0.43–0.27 (61%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Gorges – Myers7:22
xG 0.22–0.09 (72%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Strachan – Ristolainen3:49
xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz10:40
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Ott – Lindstrom – Berglund7:04
xG 0.02–0.05 (30%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Porter – Paajarvi4:13
xG 0.10–0.18 (37%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Stastny8:08
xG 0.10–0.42 (20%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Gunnarsson12:12
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo12:35
xG 0.22–0.45 (33%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Jackman – Cole11:47
xG 0.06–0.35 (15%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).