Tue, Nov 11, 2014·United Center, Chicago
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 16 | 07 | 111 | 03 | 0 | 227 |
| CHI | 019 | 112 | 17 | 01 | 1 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:35TBLCedric PaquetteSHAssists: Ondrej Palat, Eric Brewer · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 9:13CHIBrad RichardsAssists: Kris Versteeg, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 1:18CHIMarcus KrugerPPAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Marian Hossa · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 9:53TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TBL Ryan Callahan stopped
- 2. CHI Jonathan Toews stopped
- 3. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
- 4. CHI Patrick Kane scored
- 5. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:22TBLAnton Stralman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:43TBLAndrej Sustr: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:57TBLEric Brewer: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:09TBLValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:41CHIBen Smith: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:10CHIJeremy Morin: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:10TBLJT Brown: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:10TBLJT Brown: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:00TBLEric Brewer: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:45CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:11CHIBrent Seabrook: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:16CHIJeremy Morin: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:16TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Paquette – Drouin4:13
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Palat2:43
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Brown6:14
xG 0.20–0.20 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov5:57
xG 0.32–0.40 (45%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Brewer – Gudas3:35
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Brewer – Sustr9:02
xG 0.19–0.22 (45%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Carle – Stralman11:09
xG 0.42–0.65 (39%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestVersteeg – Toews – Kane10:42
xG 0.82–0.49 (63%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Regin – Morin – Shaw2:01
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hossa – Smith – Kruger7:59
xG 0.30–0.16 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Richards – Bickell – Saad2:02
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson4:54
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson5:22
xG 0.38–0.06 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Rozsival – van Riemsdyk4:08
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).