Wed, Nov 12, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Boston Bruins 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 08 | 17 | 011 | 126 |
| TOR | 112 | 415 | 16 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:46TORPhil KesselAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Cody Franson · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 0:18TORPhil KesselGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 1:34TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Peter Holland · Snap, 0.22 xG0–3
- P2 3:32TORTyler BozakPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Cody Franson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–4
- P2 9:51TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, Jake Gardiner · Slap, 0.20 xG0–5
- P2 14:16BOSDennis SeidenbergAssists: Milan Lucic, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–5
- P3 7:21TORPeter HollandPPAssists: Leo Komarov, Mike Santorelli · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–6
Penalties (7)
- P2 2:20BOSSeth Griffith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:32BOSDougie Hamilton: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:54TORCody Franson: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:33BOSDaniel Paille: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:04TORDavid Clarkson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:36TORCody Franson: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:28BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Holland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Soderberg – Smith3:49
xG 0.14–0.06 (70%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Gagne – Bergeron – Lucic3:45
xG 0.09–0.03 (77%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith6:47
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
- Gagne – Campbell – Paille5:12
xG 0.09–0.10 (46%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Morrow13:33
xG 0.80–0.32 (71%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Trotman – Krug11:33
xG 0.53–0.54 (50%)attempts 18–11goals 0–2
- Seidenberg – Hamilton15:22
xG 0.37–0.66 (36%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Panik – Leivo8:59
xG 0.60–0.16 (79%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Komarov – Holland9:34
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:23
xG 0.36–0.67 (35%)attempts 11–18goals 2–0
- Clarkson – Winnik – Kadri11:42
xG 0.08–0.49 (14%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Rielly10:30
xG 0.72–0.20 (78%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Franson12:20
xG 0.30–0.17 (63%)attempts 11–18goals 2–1
- Phaneuf – Polak2:35
xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).