Wed, Nov 12, 2014·Honda Center, Anaheim
Los Angeles Kings 5, Anaheim Ducks 6 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 25 | 17 | 213 | 01 | 1 | 526 |
| ANA | 015 | 216 | 314 | 04 | 2 | 649 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:21LAKAnze KopitarUnassisted · Backhand, 0.37 xG1–0
- P1 19:11LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Jake Muzzin, Jeff Carter · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 7:07ANACam FowlerAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 9:20LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Kyle Clifford, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P2 11:43ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Ryan Kesler, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 2:35ANARyan KeslerAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Matt Beleskey · Slap, 0.30 xG3–3
- P3 7:32LAKMarian GaborikAssists: Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin · Snap, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 11:01LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Alec Martinez, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–3
- P3 14:20ANARyan KeslerAssists: Sami Vatanen, Hampus Lindholm · Backhand, 0.08 xG5–4
- P3 18:21ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Devante Smith-Pelly, Sami Vatanen · Tip-in, 0.08 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. LAK Marian Gaborik scored
- 2. ANA Jakob Silfverberg scored
- 3. LAK Jeff Carter stopped
- 4. ANA Ryan Kesler scored
- 5. LAK Anze Kopitar stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:21ANASami Vatanen: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 10:02LAKMatt Greene: Holding2 min
- P1 16:38LAKJake Muzzin: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:02ANAJosh Manson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:48ANABryan Allen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Stoll – Carter – Lewis5:26
xG 0.20–0.17 (53%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Stoll – Lewis – Clifford2:45
xG 0.01–0.08 (14%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Williams – Kopitar14:46
xG 0.54–0.66 (45%)attempts 15–11goals 2–2
- Brown – Richards – King10:15
xG 0.22–0.48 (31%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Doughty – McNabb2:06
xG 0.04–0.02 (73%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty16:36
xG 0.51–0.88 (37%)attempts 14–20goals 2–2
- McBain – McNabb9:34
xG 0.33–0.71 (32%)attempts 11–12goals 1–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Smith-Pelly – Etem12:07
xG 1.07–0.16 (87%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Kesler – Beleskey – Silfverberg15:04
xG 0.66–0.19 (78%)attempts 17–10goals 3–0
- Cogliano – Karlsson – Rakell9:24
xG 0.89–0.49 (65%)attempts 19–8goals 1–2
- Getzlaf – Maroon – Etem2:20
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm14:49
xG 1.32–0.49 (73%)attempts 27–9goals 1–2
- Stoner – Fowler15:41
xG 0.72–0.51 (59%)attempts 20–17goals 1–1
- Allen – Vatanen13:32
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).