Thu, Nov 13, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Nashville Predators 3, St. Louis Blues 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 110 | 29 | 06 | 325 |
| STL | 212 | 17 | 18 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:25STLT.J. OshiePPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Jori Lehtera · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 12:45STLCarl GunnarssonAssists: Maxim Lapierre, Steve Ott · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 13:21NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: James Neal, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 3:41NSHShea WeberAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 15:18STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jori Lehtera, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 19:59NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Shea Weber, Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 14:06STLPaul StastnyGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Carl Gunnarsson · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:56NSHOlli Jokinen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 3:59STLSteve Ott: Interference2 min
- P1 7:11STLJoakim Lindstrom: Interference2 min
- P2 6:46NSHEric Nystrom: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:46STLKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:46NSHRyan Ellis: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:46STLVladimir Tarasenko: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:51STLDavid Backes: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:51STLSteve Ott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 7:51NSHJames Neal: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:16STLRyan Reaves: Misconduct10 min
- P2 19:39STLT.J. Oshie: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 8:42NSHJames Neal: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – Jarnkrok8:23
xG 0.59–0.22 (73%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Cullen – Gaustad – Nystrom4:23
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Roy – Beck – Bourque5:46
xG 0.09–0.06 (58%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Bourque – Jarnkrok3:01
xG 0.02–0.07 (22%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm12:44
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Jones9:59
xG 0.43–0.36 (54%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Weber – Josi21:36
xG 0.67–0.68 (50%)attempts 16–20goals 2–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Oshie – Berglund10:45
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Steen – Backes – Oshie4:26
xG 0.02–0.02 (52%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – Steen – Stastny6:33
xG 0.11–0.13 (47%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
- Ott – Lapierre – Reaves3:56
xG 0.13–0.20 (40%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo17:59
xG 0.85–0.72 (54%)attempts 13–21goals 0–2
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson13:43
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 3–0
- Jackman – Cole10:52
xG 0.05–0.35 (13%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).