Thu, Nov 13, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Buffalo Sabres 3, Minnesota Wild 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 25 | 015 | 18 | 328 |
| MIN | 420 | 111 | 18 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:03BUFRasmus RistolainenAssists: Matt Moulson, Zemgus Girgensons · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 6:07MINRyan CarterAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Justin Fontaine · Deflected, 0.43 xG1–1
- P1 6:14MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P1 6:24BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Tyler Ennis, Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P1 9:21MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Justin Fontaine, Ryan Carter · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P1 17:52MINNino NiederreiterPPGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Mathew Dumba · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–4
- P2 13:50MINJared SpurgeonPPAssists: Jason Pominville, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–5
- P3 12:56BUFTorrey MitchellAssists: Drew Stafford, Nicolas Deslauriers · Snap, 0.10 xG3–5
- P3 17:32MINNino NiederreiterENAssists: Charlie Coyle, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:35BUFTyler Myers: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:34BUFDrew Stafford: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:51BUFPatrick Kaleta: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:56BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:37MINJustin Fontaine: Holding2 min
- P3 9:25MINJordan Schroeder: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Stafford
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- McCormick – Stafford – Deslauriers4:12
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Kaleta – Stewart – Hodgson2:32
xG 0.07–0.14 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gionta – Mitchell – Flynn10:40
xG 0.16–0.28 (37%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Gionta – Mitchell – Deslauriers2:08
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrachan – Zadorov3:00
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Strachan – Myers7:45
xG 0.12–0.31 (29%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Strachan – Weber5:35
xG 0.07–0.53 (12%)attempts 2–9goals 0–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBrodziak – Carter – Fontaine7:12
xG 0.82–0.03 (97%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Coyle – Granlund – Niederreiter13:24
xG 0.76–0.06 (93%)attempts 17–4goals 1–1
- Koivu – Pominville – Zucker11:08
xG 0.80–0.39 (67%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Vanek – Schroeder – Haula10:39
xG 0.41–0.17 (71%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon20:02
xG 1.03–0.33 (76%)attempts 25–12goals 0–1
- Ballard – Prosser7:30
xG 0.78–0.16 (83%)attempts 8–5goals 2–1
- Dumba – Folin5:27
xG 0.72–0.19 (79%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).